Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 35.871473 38.857597 42.157808 46.112882 50.775425 56.165122 62.971243
2025-10-12 31.293594 35.128930 39.660393 45.532053 53.138755 62.979676 77.291405
2025-10-19 29.056661 33.374230 38.705291 45.999404 56.136005 70.496962 94.207354
2025-10-26 27.866329 32.640007 38.764970 47.570250 60.658968 81.021923 119.906414
2025-11-02 26.461853 31.431505 37.988132 47.770965 63.104356 88.914560 145.414170
2025-11-09 24.672748 29.541527 36.069301 46.025569 62.144563 90.684859 159.452535
2025-11-16 23.134840 27.870396 34.298971 44.274480 60.849759 91.457732 171.789974
2025-11-23 22.596038 27.510996 34.329198 45.238265 64.245512 102.282281 221.924190
2025-11-30 21.814055 26.754608 33.713005 45.092662 65.625805 109.369438 270.961350
2025-12-07 20.992484 25.890578 32.869415 44.477583 66.012528 114.331075 321.752739
2025-12-14 19.780533 24.413959 31.025925 42.049030 62.576222 108.968111 312.637215
2025-12-21 19.325629 24.000914 30.759827 42.247977 64.347853 117.581490 407.828616
2025-12-28 19.281929 24.288939 31.748206 45.022267 72.697930 151.913167 1202.079717
2026-01-04 18.481965 23.431879 30.908623 44.505118 74.002574 166.780908 3631.318459
2026-01-11 17.965458 22.956474 30.624071 44.950300 77.671063 195.223721 NaN
2026-01-18 17.693731 22.827876 30.882567 46.457857 84.543841 251.716393 NaN
2026-01-25 17.214850 22.346963 30.508065 46.650300 88.020836 300.758497 NaN
2026-02-01 16.467883 21.409412 29.293551 44.975714 85.648656 304.080963 NaN
2026-02-08 15.773143 20.525800 28.124640 43.293676 82.938910 302.068817 NaN
2026-02-15 15.545801 20.366941 28.191793 44.219703 88.541983 398.152221 NaN
2026-02-22 15.171111 19.954603 27.787168 44.079845 90.735398 476.944925 NaN
2026-03-01 14.755761 19.459218 27.206194 43.488873 91.251057 542.275154 NaN
2026-03-08 14.109666 18.571585 25.889181 41.153077 85.143718 461.804922 NaN